Data Decoded: Charting the Trends and Costs of Declining Mental Health in the UK

Introduction

Reported rates of poor mental health are rising in the UK.

This trend is placing mounting pressure on three critical areas of public spending: the NHS, schools and the welfare system. Mental-health conditions are now the most common reason cited by people who are out of work due to long-term sickness.

The reasons behind this shift remain unclear. It may reflect a rise in true prevalence, but other factors could also be at play – such as distorted financial incentives within the system, overdiagnosis or changing public attitudes and awareness around mental health.

Whatever the cause, one thing is clear: the current trajectory is unsustainable.

In this commentary we draw on a range of existing data sources to identify patterns across the population. Using interactive graphics, we examine the impact of these trends on spending and outcomes in the NHS, in schools and in the benefits system.

Developing a better understanding of what’s driving these changes is essential, but mental-health statistics are patchy, making it difficult to see the full picture. Better data is urgently needed, as is a more strategic approach – one that helps policymakers respond more effectively to a challenge with wide-ranging implications for individual wellbeing and the UK economy as a whole.

The Incidence of Common Mental Disorders Is Rising

In the past decade, the number of people in the UK reporting poor mental health has risen substantially. In particular, there are clear indications that rates of common mental disorders^[_] such as depression, anxiety and stress-related conditions are increasing.

The availability of mental-health data is patchy. The most comprehensive data set, the Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey, was last updated in 2014 (a new publication is expected later this year). In the meantime, it is necessary to draw on a range of data sources – including self-reported survey responses, GP reporting and the number of prescriptions issued – to understand underlying trends in mental health in the UK.

One clear trend is the rise of anxiety, particularly since the Covid-19 pandemic. Data from the Annual Population Survey show that prior to the pandemic, self-reported levels of anxiety in the population were relatively stable. Since 2019, however, the number of people reporting high levels of anxiety has surged and remained high, with 23 per cent of working-age adults reporting “poor anxiety” in 2023.

The rate at which depression is being diagnosed is also rising. According to GP records in England, the incidence of depression in adults doubled in the eight years between 2014 and 2022 – going from just 7.3 per cent of the population in 2014 to more than 13.3 per cent in 2022 – and diagnoses have continued to rise steadily since.

One of the most pronounced increases has been in attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), which we are including in our analysis because it offers valuable insight into pressures on the mental-health system and key trends also seen in common mental disorders. Though neurodevelopmental, it is assessed and treated within NHS mental-health services.

While there are no reliable data on diagnoses,^[_] prescriptions for drugs used to treat ADHD can act as a proxy measure to visualise the rise. In the six years since the 2018/19 fiscal year (FY), these prescriptions have more than doubled.

Upward Trends Are Particularly Prominent in Young People

A UK study of 29 million individuals from 2000 to 2019 revealed that while the incidence of depression, anxiety and stress increased by 42 per cent in the general population, the increase was 168 per cent among those aged 16 to 24.

Another NHS survey showed similar trends for even younger people in England. Between 2017 and 2023, the number of children aged between 8 and 16 with a probable mental-health condition^[_] increased by 62 per cent. For young people aged between 17 and 19, the rate of increase was 130 per cent.

The same NHS survey found that rates of poor mental health were roughly similar in boys and girls aged 8 to 16, but started to diverge when they were older, with girls aged 17 to 19 more than twice as likely to have a probable mental-health condition than boys.

Public Spending on Mental Health Has Ballooned – But Outcomes Remain Unchanged

Increasing rates of mental-health conditions have piled pressure on public spending.

Related expenditure on health, education and welfare – such as talk therapy, support for children with special educational needs (SEN), and disability and incapacity benefits – has risen significantly in the past decade. Yet a considerable amount of unmet need remains in the NHS, in schools and in the welfare sector, which raises the question of whether the current trajectory is sustainable and effective.

Mental-Health Spending Versus Outcomes in the NHS

NHS spending on mental health has increased by 41 per cent in nominal terms, or 18 per cent in real terms, since FY 2016/17. This appears to mirror the increase in the NHS budget more widely.

The upward trends in poor mental health have translated into substantial pressure on the system. As of January 2025, there were roughly 2 million people in contact with mental-health services, a 71 per cent increase since April 2016.

A survey conducted by Rethink Mental Illness in 2024 found that the majority of people who had attempted to access mental-health services within the previous two years felt they were not seen quickly enough, with four in five respondents experiencing a deterioration in their mental health as they waited for support. A Care Quality Commission review found young people and children had worse experiences in the mental-health-care system than adults. In 2023/24, children and young people faced an average waiting time for treatment of 389 days.

Since 2020, there has also been a five-fold increase in the number of adults seeking an ADHD diagnosis. This surge in demand has created significant backlogs across the UK, with waiting times for adult ADHD assessments stretching to eight years in some areas. As a result many individuals are turning to private providers, whose share of ADHD prescriptions has risen from 2 per cent in 2018 to 12 per cent in 2024.

Mental-Health Spending Versus Outcomes in Schools

Spending on mental health in schools has also increased significantly. The precise impact of mental health on spending cannot be determined, but SEN spending provides an indicator.

Funding for SEN comes from two main sources. Since 2014, mainstream schools have been formally required to cover the first £6,000 in additional costs (above basic per-pupil funding) from their core budget. If a pupil’s needs exceed this threshold, the school can apply for an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP), which sets out the specific support required. Local councils are legally responsible for meeting the provisions outlined in EHCPs and so provide the necessary additional funding through the high-needs block of the Dedicated Schools Grant (DSG).^[_]

The number of pupils with EHCPs in schools has risen by 79 per cent, and as a result DSG high-needs funding has increased by 60 per cent (or £4 billion) since 2015/16, with annual funding now over £11 billion. In the 2015/16 academic year, children with neurodevelopmental and mental-health conditions made up 52 per cent of EHCP cases. By 2023/24 this had increased to 68 per cent. The number of pupils identified with “social, emotional and mental health” needs (which includes ADHD) has more than doubled since 2015/16.

The rapid rise in EHCPs has outpaced SEN funding to the point where per-pupil funding in real terms has dropped by nearly 40 per cent since 2015/16. Despite increased spending by local councils, children with SEN are on average worse off. In line with this, the outcomes of children and young people with SEN and families’ day-to-day experiences have not improved.

This is reflected in a Local Government Association-commissioned report which shows that despite increased expenditure, the academic outcomes of pupils with identified SEN are not improving. The proportion of pupils aged 7 to 11 receiving SEN support who meet expected standards in reading, writing and maths has remained constant. A similar trend is seen in secondary education, where GCSE scores for children with SEN have shown no improvement.

Mental-Health Spending Versus Outcomes in Welfare

Mental health has also become a major driver of welfare spending.

Data from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) reveal people are far more likely now to cite mental health as a cause of disability. Twenty-five per cent of working-age disabled people now cite mental health as their main disability – compared with 18 per cent a decade ago. This has led to an increase in both incapacity and disability benefits.

Data from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) show a stark rise in the cost of incapacity benefits in the past six years, from 0.6 per cent of UK GDP in 2018 to 1 per cent in 2024. This represents £7 billion more per year compared with six years ago; to put this in context, that would be enough to fund the entire prison system for a year. While mental health is not responsible for the entirety of the rise, there is evidence for it being a key driver. It is difficult to assess the precise impact because claimants are not required to cite the primary condition behind their claim and the average number of conditions cited by successful claimants is 3.4. However, the most recent DWP data show that 90 per cent of successful incapacity-benefit claimants listed a mental or behavioural disorder^[_] as part of their claim.

PIP recipients are required to cite the primary condition they are claiming for, and the data show that since 2019 there has been an increase of 190 per cent in the number of PIP claims citing psychiatric disorders (an umbrella classification used by the DWP to describe mental-health conditions). In 2024, 42 per cent of approved PIP claims were for psychiatric disorders, of which 40 per cent were anxiety- or depression-related disorders.

There are substantial variations by age, with young people far more likely to cite mental health as their primary condition. New 25-year-old claimants cited mental-health and behavioural disorders as their primary condition in 69 per cent of cases, while for new 55-year-old claimants the figure was 22 per cent.

Spending on PIP and DLA has risen steeply in the past six years, from 0.6 per cent of UK GDP in 2018 to 1.3 per cent today. Further modelling by the OBR estimates that if nothing is done to change this trajectory, spending on incapacity benefits and PIP will account for 2.6 per cent of GDP by 2028, or £71 billion annually.

However, significant rises in welfare spending to support people with mental-health conditions have not helped them return to work. Analysis from the Resolution Foundation shows that fewer than 1 per cent of individuals receiving incapacity benefit (specifically, the Universal Credit LCWRA health element) move into work each month.

Data on return-to-work rates show that there is a clear temporal element to this: the longer someone is out of work, the less likely they are to re-enter the labour market.

Yet evidence shows that employment is protective of mental health, highlighting the importance of supporting people with mental-health conditions back into work where possible.

It Is Not Clear What’s Driving Upward Trends

The drivers behind the upward trends remain uncertain. They could include a true increase in the prevalence of mental-health conditions, the impact of distorted financial incentives and shifting perceptions of mental health – new ways of thinking and talking about people’s experiences. We next highlight relevant data to help understand the potential importance of all three factors.

Is the Underlying Prevalence of Mental-Health Conditions Rising?

Certainly, other countries have seen similar upward trends since the pandemic. The global incidence of depression is estimated to have risen by 25 per cent in 2020/2021, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). No comprehensive global data have been released since, but a WHO official reports that rates have still not returned to pre-pandemic levels.

However, other countries have not seen the same rise in the benefit costs associated with mental health. This suggests that there may be something specific about the UK’s welfare system that incentivises claims.

Is It a Response to Distorted Systemic Incentives?

It may also be that distorted incentives in the health, education and welfare systems are at play.

Health

In health care, considerable attention has been drawn – in the media and elsewhere – to the possible role of distorted incentives in driving overdiagnosis. These incentives are especially evident in the private sector. For example, the surge in demand for ADHD diagnoses has created a lucrative market for private clinics, some of which charge more than £1,000 for an assessment. Those diagnosed may then spend thousands more on ongoing medication.

Distorted incentives also contribute to rising public spending. For instance, there are few disincentives to signing people off work for mental-health conditions when GP practices are not accountable for downstream costs such as welfare support. That said, it may be both unreasonable and inappropriate to expect clinicians to police access to that support.

Education

Distorted incentives also exist in the education system around funding for SEN support.

Schools are required to cover the first £6,000 of SEN provision, but this threshold has not been adjusted for inflation for over ten years. As a result, a greater number of pupils need more support than this funding can provide.

Mainstream schools can only access additional “high-needs” funding from local councils for SEN if a pupil has an EHCP. While school budgets are fixed and finite, councils are legally required to fund EHCPs – effectively making high-needs spending unlimited. This creates an incentive for schools to seek EHCPs in order to access this significant additional funding stream, rather than focusing on inclusive provision within their core SEN offering.

Welfare

Distorted incentives have also had an impact on the welfare system.

As it stands, the standard Universal Credit allowance for an individual who is single and over 25 is £4,721.40 a year. But an individual with a mental-health condition and LCWRA status is entitled to the additional health-related component of Universal Credit, which equates to £5,079.24 annually. This more than doubles the benefit and is comparable to around half a working week on the minimum wage.

The system deters claimants from trying to work, as taking a job could lead to losing their limited-capability-for-work status and, as a result, their eligibility for health-related benefits. A 2025 DWP survey found that 50 per cent of out-of-work individuals on health and disability benefits feared they would be unable to reclaim their benefits if a job did not work out.

Reforms set out in the government’s green paper, Pathways to Work: Reforming Benefits and Support to Get Britain Working, published in March 2025, aim to reshape the benefits system to ensure long-term sustainability. These proposals go some way to addressing the distorted financial incentives and could result in lower overall expenditure on incapacity and disability benefits.

Is It a Change in How We Think About Mental Health?

In the past 15 years, stigmas around mental health have diminished. The Attitudes to Mental Illness survey by Mind shows measures of prejudice and exclusion around mental health have consistently improved. As a result, people are more willing to seek help for mental-health conditions, which increases diagnoses.

Greater awareness of mental-health conditions is also being driven by access to online information. Google trends data reveal interest in the search term “ADHD diagnosis” has increased by 809 per cent in the last five years.

Greater public interest in mental-health conditions is leading to higher levels of self-diagnosis, especially among young people. In 2022, a survey of UK university students found that 57 per cent of participants reported having a mental-health issue, but of these only 24 per cent had a diagnosis.

This may reflect shifting attitudes toward emotional distress, with more people interpreting low mood as a condition requiring treatment. As an article in the British Medical Journal notes, individuals entering the system often encounter a “diagnose-and-treat” model, where underlying issues like financial or family stress may go unaddressed, which risks overdiagnosis. At present, mental-health services remain the primary route for accessing state-supported help for emotional distress.

Notably, upward trends in common mental disorders contrast with trends across conditions defined as major psychiatric disorders^[_] such as schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and psychosis, where rates have changed very little over the past decade.

Whatever the Causes, Understanding the Trends Is Important

So far, there has been no national effort to grasp this evolving challenge – but the current trajectory is unsustainable. Without a fresh approach, the UK risks continuing to allocate resources to inefficient support systems that drain public services and limit individual outcomes. Robust investigation – grounded in stronger data and deeper inquiry – is essential to shaping effective future policy.