Tony Blair Institute calls on leaders to bolster national resilience by putting climate preparedness at the heart of economic strategy - instead of “reacting disaster by disaster.”
Without major investment, climate change could slash global GDP by up to 19% by 2050, while governments face an annual financing gap of $194–366 billion to build resilience and protect their economies.
TBI proposals include the establishment of Climate Resilience Councils, “pay-as-you-save” financing for households and businesses, AI-driven modelling, Climate Resilience Investment Zones, real-time early warning systems.
The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI) has published a new report today (Tuesday 22 April) urging leaders to bolster national resilience by embedding climate risk into national economic planning, rather than “reacting disaster by disaster”.
Released as global economic leaders gather for the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C, the report - ‘Protecting the Future: An Agenda for Building Climate-Resilient Economies’ - underscores the urgent need for nations to protect themselves against climate change as “an insurance policy for the future”, warning that failing to act could cost the global economy dearly.
Climate change is estimated to shrink GDP by up to 19% by 2050, while governments face a global annual adaptation finance gap of up to $366 billion as climate-related economic losses skyrocket.
TBI’s Director of Climate and Energy Policy, Lindy Fursman, said: “Climate resilience has long been deprioritised despite climate change being an urgent threat. Extreme weather is our new reality, but too many governments are trapped in outdated, reactive ways of working - acting only after disaster strikes.
“Climate-proofing shouldn’t be viewed as a luxury or a cost - it’s an insurance policy for the future; a strategic investment in national security, economic stability, and long-term prosperity. We can’t keep letting disasters set the agenda. Leaders must embrace bold, forward-looking strategies that put climate resilience at the heart of economic planning.”
The report provides a resilience roadmap for governments so they can shift from crisis-driven responses to strategic economic resilience. Key recommendations include:
Establishing high-level Climate Resilience Councils, who would be directly accountable to the head of government. In the same way that National Security Councils meet regularly to consider defence and security risks, the climate councils would meet to assess and streamline climate related risks across economic, infrastructure and finance departments. Joined-up data would inform policy-decisions, with real-time data monitoring progress so policies can shift as risks evolve.
Deploying localised early warning systems and climate data tools to cut disaster response costs, prioritising real-time systems that enable communities and businesses to anticipate, prepare, and respond to immediate climate risks. For example, partnering with telecom providers to deliver local, real-time alerts through mobile apps, SMS, and community networks.
Using AI-driven modelling to anticipate climate threats, using machine learning to model GDP losses, employment risks, and market instability that are due to climate disruptions, as well as mapping climate threats onto critical industries. For example, directing flood defence spending toward the most economically and socially impacted areas.
Making small-scale resilience projects more investable, by offering “pay-as-you-save” financing that allow households, communities, and businesses, to protect themselves without upfront costs, with repayments tied to cost-savings or long-term benefits. Digital platforms can also streamline financing processes, reduce paperwork and lower administrative costs.
Launching Climate Resilience Investment Zones in vulnerable areas to attract private capital, and expanding blended finance models, resilience credits, adaptation bonds, and performance-based financing to finance adaptation and resilience projects.
Streamlining planning, permitting and approvals for resilience projects, including simplifying administrative processes and reducing bureaucratic barriers for building 'climate-smart' infrastructure or retrofits. Fast-tracking approvals can accelerate the adoption of solutions like rooftop rainwater harvesting or climate-resilient building upgrades.
The growing frequency and severity of extreme weather events underline the urgent need for climate resilience. Once-rare heatwaves are now routine, with 2024 marking the hottest year on record. Severe flooding, such as Pakistan’s 2022 disaster that affected 33 million people, and prolonged droughts in California and the Horn of Africa are straining water supplies and agriculture. And wildfire risks have surged - 15 of California’s 20 most destructive fires have occurred since 2015, not counting the most recent devastating Palisades Fire in early January 2025, and Canada saw its worst wildfire season in 2023.
TBI works with some of the world’s biggest innovators on climate resilience, including US company Thinking Machines, which use satellite imagery and AI to map landslide risks. This technology helps governments detect threats faster and more accurately, improving disaster planning, saving lives and infrastructure.