War and innovation have always been deeply intertwined. Technologies large and small, complex and simple have long tipped the balance of power on and off the battlefield. The countries that rapidly integrate technologies from the marketplace to the frontline at pace are more able to meaningfully alter the trajectory of conflict. The rapid adoption of drones in Ukraine has – in part – defined the conflict, as advances in robotics and AI integration are reshaping the future of warfare irrevocably. Despite this increasing evidence that the power to capture and scale creative innovation will define a state’s ability to deter and influence, more needs to be done to align the United Kingdom’s defence strategy with emerging threats and innovations.
It is the end of an era for UK defence strategy. The idea the UK can go it alone with best-in-class military capabilities on air, land and sea is no longer sustainable. The world has changed and technology is transforming warfare. A reboot is therefore needed for the UK’s defence strategy to be fit for a new era of threats.
In a recent submission to the UK Strategic Defence Review, we set out how such a reboot can be undertaken and the policies required to keep Britain safe in the coming decades.
The International Context Is Changing
Correctly calibrating the reboot needed on defence strategy requires first fully understanding how the geopolitical context is changing.
The world is currently experiencing the highest number of conflicts at any point since the end of the second world war. The global order has also shifted dramatically; the once stable post-Cold War framework has disappeared, and both Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s assertive actions in the Asia-Pacific region herald the return of great geopolitical power struggles. The new “Axis of Upheaval”, driven by pragmatic alignment between Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, is eroding global stability.
Driving much of this acceleration is the rapid pace in development of AI and advances in large-scale computing. This is a game-changer that necessitates a re-evaluation of UK defence strategy. The world is just at the start of its AI journey but its potential for good as well as ill is phenomenal. The starting gun has already been fired in the race for AI dominance, and that race will only intensify as AI is integrated throughout our civil and military systems.
The UK Must Adapt to This Changing World
The UK has made important progress in recent years in updating its defence and security strategy. The 2021 Integrated Review and last year’s refresh have allowed the country to respond more coherently to the geopolitical challenges of today. Sustaining strategic advantage through science and technology is now a primary objective, as is taking steps to prepare for new types of threats. The government identified that technological competition is accelerating, but AI, competition for energy and the nature of warfare itself continue to evolve at breakneck speed. The UK’s defence strategy must do the same.
The right strategy starts with fully understanding the dynamic complexity of the threats the country faces so that the UK has the insight and foresight to identify the right threats as well as the right responses.
A strong and coherent vision of the UK’s defence infrastructure is needed that is agile, adaptable and able to procure and integrate innovation at pace.
But in a fast-moving world, delivering at pace after this Strategic Defence Review will be pivotal to reshaping the country’s approach to defence. In our recent submission to the government’s Strategic Defence Review we set out a series of steps the country needs to take to reboot our defence strategy.
TBI’s Plan for Reimagined Defence Strategy
First, we argue that a new Integrated Defence Strategy Team (IDST) in Number 10, supported by a Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF), is needed to help map where the UK has competitive advantages in its military capabilities, where these can dovetail into alliances and how the UK deepen these to excel in key areas.
It is unimaginable to foresee a scenario in which the UK would need to, or could, act alone militarily, so it needs to be a good military partner, with exceptional capabilities in areas that add value to its alliances. The IDST would look at strategic threats to the UK and make prognoses over two-, five- and ten-year periods. This would sit alongside the work of the CSF, which would produce 20-to-30-year threat assessments. The UK’s defence strategy would be reviewed on a yearly basis through a National Security Assessment. This assessment, coupled to the creation of the IDST and CSF, would give the centre of government a broader picture on the threats facing the UK and a better ability to respond to them.
Second, the government needs to embrace a new dynamism in procurement to adapt with speed and agility to 21st-century military requirements. This involves working more closely, and earlier, with private industry to accelerate the development and deployment of new defence capabilities. Defence innovation hubs, like those proposed in the UK’s new strategy, are essential for fostering innovation in a rapidly evolving technological environment.
This update of procurement requires better curating a vibrant ecosystem of defence tech startups, creating an Advanced Procurement Agency to test and pull through the best emerging capabilities, and better investing in people to ensure the Ministry of Defence can recruit, retain and train the people it needs to identify, curate and procure the technologies transforming the battlefield.
Third, the personnel requirements of a 21st-century defence force differ significantly from those of the past. Today’s military must be equipped with a workforce skilled in cyber-operations, AI development and unmanned-systems operation. Traditional personnel are still needed but, increasingly, the battlefield requires a new class of specialists and systems-thinkers capable of operating and maintaining advanced technologies.
For the UK, this means a comprehensive rethink of the structural dynamics of recruitment, training and retention. Attracting talent from fields like computer science, AI and cyber-security is essential. The UK must also focus on upskilling its current military personnel to operate effectively in a combat environment increasingly defined by technology. The establishment of dedicated cyber-academies and expanded training programmes for digital warfare are crucial steps towards building a future-ready military.
Finally, given the complex multilateral geopolitical context the UK faces now and in the coming years, further thought is needed about its strategy regarding alliances and partnerships. AUKUS has been a hugely positive step in this regard and provides a model for how minilateral groupings can be created. The Hiroshima Accord, with its provisions on defence and security cooperation, offers an example of how bilateral ties can be deepened with key countries like Japan.
Data by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) show the US and China spend more together on defence than the next 38 countries combined. The UK will not be relevant in a multipolar world without being able to work effectively with the right allies that are more than the sum of their parts.
NATO is critical in this regard, and the UK can step up to lead a renewal of the alliance to meet the new threats it faces, with a Europe-led approach on capabilities and deployability. This would include better defining the alliance’s strategy, ensuring a more effective spread of capabilities across allies within NATO and ensuring enhanced interoperability of equipment – particularly through an accelerator unit and NATO bank.
The UK’s choice of allies – and the effectiveness of those alliances – will define its ability to shape the world around it.
The Start of a New Era in the UK’s Defence Strategy
The UK stands at a critical juncture in reimagining its defence and security strategy for the 21st century. The landscape of modern warfare has shifted dramatically, with every new technological advance bringing as many threats as opportunities. From cyber-threats and AI to drones, hypersonic missiles and information operations, the nature of warfare has been and continues to be redefined. To navigate these challenges, the UK must not only invest in cutting-edge technologies but also overhaul its procurement processes, reskill its personnel and strengthen its alliances.
By deepening insight about the ways in which the world is changing, integrating new capabilities, accelerating innovation and building strong partnerships the UK and its allies will be able to deter future threats and, if necessary, prevail in conflicts yet to come.
All of this requires accepting that a new era of defence strategy is fast emerging and, for the UK, the Strategic Defence Review is the opportunity to reboot for the future. But how quickly the UK moves to meet the challenges it faces is critical. Time is pressing. Action is urgent.